Daftarsbmptn.com – Permata Bank, through the Permata Institute for Economic Research (PIER), estimates that Indonesia’s GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 will be slightly above 5 percent, at around 5.04 percent, a slowdown from 5.12 percent in the previous quarter.
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to release Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the third quarter of 2025 on Wednesday (November 5, 2025).
“We project that Indonesia’s GDP growth will weaken from 5.12 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the second quarter to 5.04 percent (yoy) in the third quarter of 2025,” said Faisal Rachman, Department Head of Macroeconomic and Financial Market Research at Permata Bank, in a statement in Jakarta on Tuesday (November 4, 2025).
However, the growth rate will remain slightly above 5 percent, higher than the figures in the first quarter and the first half of 2025, indicating an improvement in the direction of economic growth.
Faisal explained that this slowdown was primarily due to weakening household consumption due to political uncertainty at the end of August 2025, which depressed consumer confidence, as well as the normalization of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) along with slowing imports of capital goods.
Export growth is expected to remain solid, supported by increased demand from the United States until August 2025 and a surge in foreign tourists during the summer holiday season.
Meanwhile, import growth is projected to decline in line with slowing GFCF activity and a decline in service imports following the end of the school holidays and the Hajj pilgrimage period.
For the year as a whole, PIER estimates that Indonesia’s GDP growth in 2025 will remain around the 10-year average of around 5 percent, supported by government policies oriented towards economic growth.
PIER assesses that Indonesia’s GDP growth prospects still face a number of challenges, which emphasize the importance of maintaining an expansionary economic policy, particularly through accelerating the realization of government spending in productive sectors with high multiplier effects.
“Overall, we project Indonesia’s GDP growth in the range of 5.0-5.1 percent for 2025 (compared to 5.03 percent in 2024). This represents an upward revision from the previous projection, which estimated growth slightly below 5 percent,” said Faisal.
For 2026, Faisal estimates that the main risks to Indonesia’s economic outlook will remain similar to those in 2025.
From the external perspective, uncertainty due to the trade war, geopolitical tensions, and China’s slow economic recovery will remain challenges.
However, general global economic stagnation has the potential to contain inflationary pressures, thus providing room for further interest rate cuts, which could boost risk-on sentiment in emerging markets like Indonesia.
Meanwhile, from the domestic perspective, Faisal believes that domestic political stability will be a crucial factor for the economy.
While there is still room to expand fiscal and monetary policies, policymakers are reminded to carefully balance growth promotion with macroeconomic stability.
This is important considering that the current account deficit has the potential to widen due to trade frictions, while the fiscal deficit could increase amidst growth-oriented policies.