Daftarsbmptn.com – Bank Indonesia (BI) expressed high optimism regarding Indonesia’s economic growth prospects in 2026, with a projected higher growth rate than the previous year. At the December 2025 Board of Governors Meeting (RDG), BI Governor Perry Warjiyo stated that the national economy is projected to grow in the range of 4.9 percent to 5.7 percent in 2026, reflecting confidence in the resilience of the domestic economy and the vital role of the manufacturing and export sectors in supporting growth.
He explained that several fundamental factors support this growth outlook, including increasingly solid household consumption, rising non-building investment, and manufacturing indicators showing positive momentum. Manufacturing, along with the trade, transportation, and logistics sectors, is expected to continue to contribute significantly to overall economic activity.
Manufacturing and Export Sectors Are Key
According to BI, the manufacturing sector is projected to be one of the main drivers of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2026, in line with the increase in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), an indicator indicating expansion in industrial activity. Strong manufacturing activity not only helps absorb labor but also expands the national production base, supporting broader economic growth.
Meanwhile, export performance is also a key pillar supporting growth optimism. Although global markets still face uncertainty, including pressure from global economic conditions and demand from major trading partners, Bank Indonesia (BI) noted that Indonesian exports in several subsectors have shown positive growth, particularly for leading commodities and industrial products. This is crucial for generating foreign exchange inflows and supporting the trade balance. Solid foreign demand remains an opportunity for domestic producers to expand their export markets.
Bank Indonesia
However, BI also noted that export growth could face challenges, particularly when demand from trading partners weakens or when global conditions worsen. Therefore, strengthening domestic demand, such as strong household consumption and accommodative fiscal policy, are important balancing factors for maintaining strong growth.
Monetary Policy and Fiscal Synergy
In an effort to maintain growth momentum, BI continues to strengthen monetary, macroprudential, and payment system policies in synergy with the government’s fiscal policy. This synergy aims not only to maintain macroeconomic stability, including inflation and the rupiah exchange rate, but also to encourage credit expansion, investment, and consumption, all of which contribute to overall economic growth.
Bank Indonesia (BI) has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI-7DRRR) at 4.75 percent, while maintaining a focus on exchange rate stability and supporting healthy economic activity. This policy is expected to create room for stronger credit growth in 2026, while helping to maintain low and stable inflationary pressures within the target range.
Global Challenges and Economic Risks
Despite high optimism, BI acknowledges that the uncertain global economic environment remains a risk that requires vigilance. Uncertain economic conditions in trading partner countries, global interest rate movements, and geopolitical dynamics can impact capital flows, the exchange rate, and demand for Indonesian exports. These risks make policy synergy, adapting economic strategies, and strengthening the domestic economic base increasingly important.
This Indonesian growth projection also differs from the estimates of other institutions, such as Pefindo, which project growth in the range of 4.9–5.3 percent in 2026 a slightly more moderate figure but still indicating a positive trend in the domestic economy.
Business Opinions
Businesses welcomed this optimistic economic growth projection, particularly as the manufacturing and export sectors are considered key segments capable of creating new jobs and strengthening the competitiveness of Indonesian products in the global market. Optimism about investment in the industrial and logistics sectors is believed to create a multiplier effect for the overall economy in 2026.
Conclusion
Bank Indonesia predicts that the Indonesian economy will grow by 5.7 percent in 2026, strongly supported by domestic consumption, the manufacturing sector, and exports, which continue to show signs of recovery and positive momentum. Synergy between monetary and fiscal policies, along with real sector policies, is seen as key to maintaining sustainable and stable growth amidst global economic dynamics. With the right strategy, Indonesia has the potential to maintain and even strengthen its inclusive economic growth trend in the coming years.